Vol. 34, No. 1, Spring/Summer 1997- "The Pennsylvania Geographer"

PENNSYLVANIA MIGRATION 1985-1995:

RESPONSES TO THE STATE'S CHANGING SPACE-ECONOMY

James P. Lewandowski

Department of Geography and Planning

West Chester University

Mark E. Reisinger

Department of Geography and Planning

West Chester University

Abstract

Two-thirds of Pennsylvania's 67 counties experienced net domestic outmigration between 1970 and 1985. Only 14 counties did so by the middle 1990's. Explanations of Pennsylvania's outmigration trends have focused upon economic issues associated with restructuring in the state's economy. Such explanations imply that the current turnaround is related to shifts in counties' economic circumstances.

This paper first estimates the responsiveness of Pennsylvania's domestic migration movements, 1985-1990, to changes in the economic performance of the state's counties during that time. Results indicate a high degree of responsiveness. A second analysis tests the ability to predict counties' current net migration patterns on the basis of the net migration values calculated from the response equation. Results indicate moderate forecasting ability.